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For example, while Lutz might be the better wrestler, Aguilar is an excellent scrambler – and I don’t expect him to stay controlled for long periods of time. Lutz should have advantages in both power and durability, but the rest of this matchup is close to even, skill for skill. This is your likely fight of the night contender from the prelims as Tucker Lutz gets the call from Contender Series, where he scored a pair of decision victories, to face Kevin Aguilar, who is looking to avoid a fourth consecutive loss and hang on to a spot in the UFC’s Featherweight division.Īguilar is a skilled fighter, but he was tentative in his most recent loss against Charles Rosa (-16, 53-69 on significant strikes) after suffering a knockout defeat last February. Bets:įeatherweight fight: Kevin Aguilar vs. The odds aren’t particularly enticing – and since the energy in the crowd may cause some octagon jitters and force violent techniques I’ll pass on this fight. I show slight value on the fight to go the distance (projected -184, listed -177) and Giagos to win by decision (projected +111, listed +125), but Giagos should get into a number of finishing positions over the first two rounds and could be hanging on for dear life late. I would normally look to bet Soriano live – almost on that factor alone – but he could also have cardio concerns after taking the fight on short notice. The only concern on the Giagos side is cardio – he’s lost the third round (on at least two scorecards) in each of his past four fights (3-1, all decisions) and Soriano is a talented kickboxer who could damage a tiring opponent in the third round. However, that figure does align with his listed odds. Soriano is also taking the fight on short notice (two weeks) and late replacements, historically, have only won at a 36% clip (implied +178) in the UFC. Giagos has focused on a wrestle-heavy game plan (18 takedowns on 43 attempts) in his past four fights and figures to give Soriano fits (career 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, 39% accuracy). In those losses, he was taken down 12 times and submitted twice, and it doesn’t appear that he has made substantial grappling improvements since his first stint. Soriano is getting a second chance in the UFC after going 0-3 with the promotion from 2014-15.

UFC 262 Odds & Picks Early Preliminary Card